For the Global Thinker

Sunday, November 11, 2012

China's Economy to Overtake US in Next Four Years, says OECD

China will overtake the US in the next four years to become the largest economy in the world, says a leading international thinktank.

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016.

Global GDP will grow by 3% a year over the next 50 years, it says, but there will be large variations between countries and regions. By 2025, it says the combined GDP of China and India will be bigger than that of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and Canada put together. Asa Johansson, senior economist at the OECD, said: "It is quite a shift in the balance of economic power we are going to see in the future."


Developing economies to eclipse west by 2060, OECD forecasts


"But by 2060, as the chart below shows, the combined GDP of China (27.8%) and India (18.2%) will be larger than that of the OECD – and the total output of China, India and the rest of the developing world (57.7%) will be greater than that of developed OECD and non-OECD countries (42.3%).

United StatesJapanEurozoneOther OECDOther non-OECDChinaIndiaUnited StatesEurozoneOther OECDIndiaChina

Developing world growth will continue to outpace the OECD, but the difference will narrow over coming decades. From more than 7% a year over the last decade, non-OECD growth will fall to around 5% in the 2020s and to about half that by the 2050s. Trend growth for the OECD is forecast to be 1.75% to 2.25% a year.

Until 2020, China will have the highest growth rate among the countries included in the report, but will then be overtaken by both India and Indonesia.


Map: How the Age of the World Will Change by 2025...

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